This update comes at a pivotal juncture when secular global economic trends seem to be shifting. Many forces driving secular stagnation, systemic risk fears and the low-flation phase of the 2010s look to be diminishing. The decade ahead will be nothing like the previous one, and the impact of higher interest rates on risk premiums will push investors to re-think their strategic asset allocation.
- Global economic trends are suggesting a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges across different regions
- Our updated central scenario continues to anticipate a 'choppy' market environment, predominantly hinging on the likelihood of a global slowdown next year
- We maintain a preference for high-quality bonds, poised to outperform should a recession materialise, and high-quality credits which offer enticing carry opportunities while helping to shield against mounting default risks