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Mid-Year Outlook 2025

New Rules

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Xavier Baraton

US exceptionalism had three dimensions – strong GDP relative to the rest of the G10, extraordinary returns in stock markets, and the strength (and hedging service) of the US dollar. Each of these features is either challenged or reversed by recent events and the changing economic regime.

We explore:

Volatile Market Narratives
Volatile Market Narratives
A feature of the current system, not a bug.
G-Zero Economics
G-Zero Economics
Old idea of US hegemony is replaced with a new G-Zero, where no one economic power is leading the global order.
End of Exceptionalism
End of Exceptionalism
Asset classes that have been overlooked by investors during the era of US exceptionalism come into focus.
Global to Local
Global to Local
Country correlations are likely to fall which creates a strong argument for EM granularity.
Safety Substitutes
Safety Substitutes
Global fixed income, selective high qualitative credits, private credit

 

The Mid-Year 2025 Investment Outlook

The global economic regime is in a transition characterised by ultra-high policy uncertainty and strained public finances. With the US economy looking less exceptional, western growth rates are converging. Meanwhile, the shift to a multi-polar world order is keeping the supply-side of the economy volatile, inflation sticky, and proving a constraint on growth.
So what are the ‘new rules’ investors need to follow in this global environment?
Joe Little, Xavier Baraton, William Benjamin, Caroline Yu Maurer, Elizabeth Allen and Sefian Kasem review the global investment outlook and offer their expert conclusions.

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The Data Behind Our Mid-Year Outlook

The key Mid-Year Outlook 2025 investment theme charts are also available for you to download here.

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More Experts’ Views at the Mid-Year 2025 Global Investment Outlook


Discover our 2025 Mid-Year Investment Outlook Report

Entering an era defined by heightened policy uncertainty, elevated inflation volatility, and geopolitical realignment of trade, capital, and growth demands a reassessment of old assumptions and an examination of New Rules.

In our Report, we bring you valuable insight into this fast-evolving landscape. We also examine the implications of the US’s diminishing dominance, its impact on European and Asian markets, and address some of your most pressing questions.

Download the report

Professional Clients Only
* This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest.
** The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. This information shouldn’t be considered as an investment advice to invest in the sectors shown. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

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