Real Estate APAC Quarterly Spotlight
Macro-wise, 2024 was a mixed bag
The global economy ended 2024 on a mixed note.
- Global headline inflation came down across most regions but progress on core inflation has been much slower, signifying that the global inflation story has become somewhat more uncertain
- That said, interest rate easing continued with the US Fed lowering interest rates by 25 bps in December 2024, the third consecutive reduction since September 2024
- Despite markets staying relatively optimistic post the US elections, the world is bracing for the impact of Trump’s proposed policy measures
What piqued our interest?
Real estate capital markets across the world, including APAC, showed more signs of meaningful stabilisation and hints of a new liquidity cycle in Q4 2024.
- Pick up in APAC real estate investment activity Investment volume in the region was up 10% YoY in Q4 2024 – this marked the fifth consecutive quarter of annualised growth while full-year volume grew substantially by 23% in 2024, surpassing 2022 levels according to JLL. A notable transaction in Q4 2024 was Blackstone’s and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s acquisition of AirTrunk for US$16 billion, the largest commercial real estate deal ever recorded in APAC. Markets at the forefront of the recovery include Japan, Australia and South Korea
Figure 1: Annual Real Estate Investment Volume by Market
Source: JLL Research, as of Q4 2024
- Japan staying at the pole position According to MSCI Research, Japan posted its second consecutive year of record deal volume in 2024 amid the sustained weak yen and low borrowing costs, retaining its title as Asia Pacific’s most active real estate capital market. For a third consecutive year, Tokyo topped the region as the most active metro and was the top market for retail, residential and hotel sectors. Tokyo’s leasing markets also surprised on the upside, with expansionary sentiment staying robust in most sectors; notably, the city’s office and multifamily residential sectors saw steady and meaningful improvements to rents and vacancies through 2024
- China Stimulus 2.0 in the works More forward guidance from China’s central government on future stimulus measures – the December 2024 Politburo meeting pledged more fiscal and monetary support following China’s multiple policy rate cuts and unveiling of a large-scale local government debt swap plan, while the Central Economic Work Conference held in the same month saw policymakers calling for more support and enhanced policy coordination to maintain steady economic growth and lift confidence
- Nascent improvement in some Chinese markets Shenzhen saw housing sales and prices taking a turn for the better in Q4 2024, as well as its most expensive land sale in history in December 2024. China Overseas Land and Investment and China Resources Land jointly paid over US$2.54 billion for a 263,000-square-metre parcel in the city’s Nanshan district, which was 46% higher than the starting price. The land parcel was sold after nearly 300 rounds of bidding. Meanwhile, Beijing recorded an increase in deal activity in 2024 (14% YoY). There were also more investors, notably government-related and state-owned enterprises, exploring investment opportunities
- More green shoots of recovery in APAC’s challenged leasing markets For instance, in Hong Kong, full-year office leasing volume was 6.2% YoY higher than that in 2023 and the highest annual figure observed since 2019 according to CBRE; there was also a surge in industrial leasing activity in Q4 2024 (58% QoQ increase) led by e-commerce related firms
- Investor sentiment towards real estate turned more upbeat with JLL’s Global Real Estate Sentiment Survey in November 2024 indicating the strongest result in nearly three years – majority of respondents think conditions will improve further over the next six months. CBRE’s 2025 Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey also saw an improvement in buying intentions across most markets in the region
What was concerning?
Risks remain highly dynamic and volatility is expected to persist in the short term; the implications from Trump’s electoral victory and the proposed policies under his administration are unclear at this juncture.
- Trump 2.0? Trump’s second presidency adds risk to our outlook for Asia real estate. There remains many moving parts and little clarity regarding Trump’s new administration and proposed policies. Change in proposed policies with regard to US imports, could have material impact on Greater China given the weaknesses in local demand. Nonetheless, this strengthens the case for further stimulus in Greater China which may help lay the ground for a more concrete recovery in Greater China’s real estate markets
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Rate cut cycle disruption The continued rise in geopolitical tensions, especially on the trade front, may result in a rebound in inflationary pressures which will disrupt the rate cut cycle. Several US Fed officials have confirmed in the first two months of 2025 that the US central bank will take a cautious stance in adjusting interest rates, and will only resume rate cuts when inflation meaningfully cools and policy uncertainties dissipate
- More developers in Greater China under stress Leading developers in Mainland China (Vanke) and Hong Kong (New World Development) have recently been in the headlines for default risk, raising concerns that the worst is far from over with regards to the current prolonged property market downturn and liquidity crisis in Greater China. Notably, investors are concerned about the possibility that a fallout of these large developers will generate secondary negative impacts on the macroeconomic environment, property sector and overall investment sentiment. Notwithstanding, Vanke’s recent management overhaul showcased Shenzhen Metro’s strong commitment to resolving Vanke’s liquidity issues, while New World Development’s parent company, Chow Tai Fook Enterprise has been supporting its business restructuring; at the same time, Vanke has been active in asset disposals over the year and there is some progress in monetising assets and repaying debt – this brings us to the view that risks are well-contained
What do we expect?
After a period of transition in the commercial real estate cycle over the past two years, we are cautiously optimistic of a tentative revival for Asia real estate in 2025.
- However, we expect the path to recovery for the region’s commercial real estate markets to be relatively patchy as market players continue to grapple with risks relating to geopolitics, construction costs, as well as the pace and magnitude of purported rate cuts in 2025
- On a more positive note, supply overhang issues are expected to start to ameliorate (at a gradual pace) given the refocus away from such “over-concentrated” sectors; in addition, leasing markets are expected to find a more concrete bottom in 2025 amid an improving leasing pipeline
- With interest rates starting to ease and asset repricing underway in several APAC real estate markets, investors are increasingly focusing on core to value-add investment strategies. According to CBRE’s 2025 Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey, core-plus and value-add were named the most popular strategies for 2025
- Japan and Singapore are expected to hold up as the top investment destinations in APAC, with the former buoyed by low interest rates, consistent rental growth and opportunities for positive yield spread and the latter underpinned by its stability and reputation as a safe investment haven. Australia has also been shown strong signs of market recovery, although many investors continue to assess current repricing and interest rates trends
- Greater China’s real estate markets have been in a prolonged downturn, having had to digest multiple shocks – pressure on the export sector, domestic corporate reforms, an unprecedented housing market crisis and plummeting consumer confidence. Coupled with the ongoing geopolitical bifurcations, there has been pronounced investor aversion to these markets. Data from MSCI Real Capital Analytics point to around a quarter of real estate investment volume in Mainland China in 2024 being distressed sales, while Colliers International estimated close to 40% of the commercial real estate transactions in Hong Kong were distressed sales or capital loss deals. Our current assessment of market conditions in Greater China is that they will not substantially change until 2026. Notwithstanding, we believe 2025 to be a window of opportunity for investors who believe in China’s underlying growth fundamentals and are looking for more opportunistic returns
The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for any investment product or strategy. The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
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